Words: Jonathan McIntosh
Everywhere we go we can take weather forecasts with us thanks to our smartphones. And while we might not be able to predict the future, meteorologists can alert us to weather patterns to help us plan our days in advance.
But meteorology isn’t just crucial to informing us whether it will rain cats and dogs. It keeps people safe, is vital to agriculture, and is important to understanding climate change. Here, we examine the history of this future-facing science and its forecasted role in protecting our tomorrows.
Winding back the clock
Meteorology is the science of studying atmospheric phenomena to forecast weather patterns. It gained its moniker from Aristotle’s 340 BCE book, Meteorologica, which documented everything known about weather at the time. Stemming from the Greek word “meteoron” – meaning “high in the sky” – “meteorologica” stuck throughout the centuries, gifting meteorologists their namesake.
Unfortunately, Aristotle’s meteorological ponderings were a little off the mark, but the scientific breakthroughs of the 17th and 18th centuries would alter our understanding of the atmosphere forever.
In 1643, Italian physicist, Evangelista Torricelli, invented the barometer, which was followed by the creation of the mercury thermometer by German physicist, Daniel Fahrenheit, in 1714. These tools became vital to accurately recording air pressure and temperature and remain in used in modern meteorology.
The arrival of Samuel Morse’s telegraph in the mid-1800s let meteorologists share weather systems information to audiences on a larger scale. This pooled knowledge culminated in the creation of the first modern weather maps and accurate forecasts. By the 1920s, Norwegian meteorologists developed concepts fundamental to modern forecasting: cold and warm air masses move and form in patterns central to weather systems.
Throughout the First and Second World Wars, militaries invested heavily in weather research to maximise the success of their operations. This resulted in the invention of radar, which is used to monitor precipitation and wind patterns. In the 1950s, supercomputers were running data through complex equations to create the first models of atmospheric conditions used to predict weather across large areas. By 1962, TIROS I, the world’s first meteorological satellite, produced the first accurate weather forecast from space.
The view from space
Satellites continue to be used extensively by meteorologists today. Polar orbiting satellites monitor set locations on Earth twice daily to provide imagery and atmospheric soundings of the planet’s temperature and moisture data. Operating 22,000 miles above the equator, geostationary satellites capture shots of the same locations every 30 minutes – equipping meteorologists with a bird’s eye view of weather patterns and atmospheric triggers.
Under pressure
There are three distinct stages to weather forecasting: observations, analysis, and communication. Twenty-four-hour satellite recordings of weather variables are sent to major forecasting centres to create observations documenting occurrences in the atmosphere. Supercomputers use these observations as starting conditions to run complex equations to predict weather patterns. Run several times a day, meteorologists use their results to verify and tweak their forecasts. Once collated, forecasts are communicated to the relevant channels.
Meteorologists also monitor our climate, which is weather averages that occur over years rather than days. This longitudinal observation of weather patterns makes meteorology essential to addressing climate change.
Climate change refers to the long-term change in average global weather. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment 2021 report found human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases have increased global temperatures by 1.1°C since the Industrial Revolution. Scientists predict that within a few decades, global temperatures will rise, or even exceed, an additional 1.5°C.
Today we’re witnessing effects of this temperature increase first-hand. Glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather is more commonplace. Consequently, the World Meteorological Organisation is encouraging meteorologists to shift their focus from what the weather will be to impact-based forecasting and warning.
Meteorological satellite observations and forecast models are vital to predicting, understanding and reducing the dangers of the hazards linked to climate change. Tools such as NASA’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder onboard its Aqua satellite – which launched in 2002 and creates 3D maps of air, water vapour, and cloud properties – gathers data that helps paint a detailed picture of the changes our climate and weather patterns have undergone over the years.
With emissions continuing to rise and extreme weather becoming ever more prevalent, it’s difficult to predict how things will look in the coming decades. But one thing is for certain: the wealth of contemporary and historical climate and weather data that meteorologists gather day in and day out will prove invaluable in helping the next generation tackle the many challenges of the uncertain future ahead of us.
Want to keep a weather eye open? We found this handy guide to some of the best apps out there.
Is our changeable climate keeping you awake at night? Rest easier with the BBC’s Sleeping Forecast.
